Samsung’s Exynos 2500 Production and Yield Challenges

1. Introduction

Samsung Electronics has begun mass production of its next-generation application processor (AP), the Exynos 2500, using its 3nm process technology. Despite this milestone, the production process faces significant challenges, particularly in yield rates, which are currently reported to be below 50%, with some estimates as low as 30%. This report analyzes the production details, expected applications, yield challenges, and future prospects for Samsung’s semiconductor business.

2. Exynos 2500: Production and Initial Yield

2.1 Production Details

• Process Node: 3nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology
• Initial Monthly Wafer Production: 5,000 wafers
• Wafer Testing Partners: Nepes Ark and Doosan Tesna
• Packaging: Handled internally by Samsung Electronics
• Expected First Batch Delivery to MX Division: April 2025

2.2 Yield and Output Calculation

Given that each 300mm wafer can theoretically yield around 580 Exynos 2500 chips (assuming a chip size of 100mm²), the total ideal production per month is:

5,000×580=2,900,000 chips per month5,000 \times 580 = 2,900,000 \text{ chips per month}

However, with actual yield rates considered:

• At 50% yield:
  2,900,000×0.5=1,450,000 usable chips per month2,900,000 \times 0.5 = 1,450,000 \text{ usable chips per month}
• At 30% yield:
  2,900,000×0.3=870,000 usable chips per month2,900,000 \times 0.3 = 870,000 \text{ usable chips per month}

These figures indicate that the current production cannot meet the demands of the Galaxy S series, which requires 2.5 to 3.3 million chips per month. This is a significant shortfall and explains why Samsung has chosen Qualcomm’s Snapdragon for the Galaxy S25 series.

3. Exynos 2500 Application in Samsung Devices

The Exynos 2500 is expected to be used in Samsung’s upcoming foldable smartphone, the Galaxy Z Flip FE, a lower-volume model compared to the flagship Galaxy S series. This strategic decision allows Samsung to gradually improve production yield and stability before scaling up to high-demand devices.

Additionally, industry sources suggest that a budget variant of the Galaxy S25 might also incorporate the Exynos 2500.

4. Challenges with the 3nm Process and Yield Issues

4.1 Why the 3nm Process Faces Yield Challenges

• GAA Technology Maturity: Samsung’s 3nm process is based on Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors, whereas TSMC continues to use FinFET for its 3nm nodes, delaying its adoption of GAA until 2nm.
• Process Stability: The first generation of any new process generally faces yield challenges, and Samsung’s 3nm technology is still in its early stages of refinement.
• Defect Density: Advanced nodes suffer from higher defect rates, and given the complexity of GAA, yield improvements require significant process optimization.
• Fab Capacity Constraints: Samsung’s 3nm production volume is still ramping up, limiting the ability to produce large volumes at a competitive cost.

4.2 The Risk of Moving to 2nm Too Soon

• Transitioning to 2nm without fully stabilizing 3nm could worsen yield issues.
• The initial yield of 2nm is likely to be lower than 3nm, possibly dropping below 30% in early stages.
• TSMC’s Cautious Approach: TSMC has delayed GAA adoption until 2nm, focusing on 3nm FinFET for stable yields and high volume production.
• Samsung’s Strategy Must Prioritize 3nm Yield Improvement First.

5. Future Plans: Exynos 2600 and 2nm Transition

Samsung is already working on the next-generation Exynos 2600, which will utilize the SF2 process (Samsung’s third-generation GAA technology). The expected improvements include:

• 12% Performance Increase
• 25% Power Efficiency Gain
• 5% Reduced Chip Area

5.1 Exynos 2600 Roadmap

• Mass Production Target: Q4 2025
• Integration into Galaxy S26: Q1 2026
• Current Test Production Yield: 30%

While Samsung has expressed confidence in its 2nm technology, securing Tier-1 customers across mobile, HPC, and automotive sectors, it must first ensure that its 3nm process can support high-volume production before transitioning.

6. Conclusion: Samsung’s Priorities for Semiconductor Competitiveness

6.1 Short-Term Focus: 3nm Yield Stabilization

• Achieve at least 70% yield on 3nm before expanding Exynos adoption in high-volume devices.
• Continue optimizations on GAA process to match or exceed TSMC’s 3nm FinFET yields.

6.2 Long-Term Strategy: Preparing for 2nm

• Samsung must avoid the mistake of transitioning to 2nm too early.
• Instead, it should ensure 3nm mass production stability and cost-effectiveness before moving to the next node.
• If not handled properly, Samsung could lose further ground to Qualcomm and Apple, which leverage TSMC’s advanced and mature nodes.

6.3 Competitiveness Against Qualcomm and TSMC

• Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 is being produced on TSMC’s highly efficient 3nm process, making it more attractive for OEMs.
• If Samsung cannot improve Exynos yield and performance, it may struggle to regain flagship smartphone AP market share.

Final Takeaway

The success of Samsung’s mobile semiconductor strategy depends on its ability to stabilize 3nm production before jumping to 2nm. While Exynos 2500 is a step forward, low yields make it infeasible for high-volume devices like the Galaxy S series. Focusing on yield improvements, process optimization, and customer trust will be critical for Samsung to compete with TSMC and Qualcomm in the high-performance AP market.