The Japanese government and Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) have set a plan to decommission the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which suffered an explosion due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, by 2051. However, a recent public opinion survey revealed that 6 out of 10 Japanese people believe this is impossible.
According to a report by the Tokyo Shimbun on the 9th, the Japan Public Opinion Research Institute conducted a mail survey from January 21 to March 3, targeting 1,713 people ahead of the 14th anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake. When asked, “Do you think the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant will be decommissioned as planned?” 60% responded, “I do not think it is possible.”
Only 6% believed that decommissioning by 2051 was possible, while 32% answered, “I don’t know.”
The question was accompanied by an explanation stating, “The Japanese government and TEPCO plan to complete the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant by removing all molten nuclear fuel (debris) by 2051. The estimated cost is 8 trillion yen (approximately 78 trillion KRW). In November last year, they successfully retrieved about 0.7g of debris for the first time in a trial. The total amount of debris is estimated to be 880 tons. The disposal method has not yet been determined.”
The Tokyo Shimbun commented on the survey results, stating, “There is a noticeable tendency to question the feasibility of the decommissioning plan.”
Regarding the release of contaminated water (referred to as “treated water” by the Japanese government) into the ocean, which TEPCO began in August 2023 as part of the decommissioning process, public opinion was evenly split. 50% expressed concern about the safety of seafood, while 48% said they were not worried. The Tokyo Shimbun noted, “Despite the government and TEPCO’s efforts to counter reputational damage, the level of concern remains unchanged from previous surveys conducted around the same period last year.”
Additionally, 83% of respondents believed that a serious nuclear accident similar to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster could happen again, while 86% stated that they did not think they could safely evacuate in the event of a radioactive leak.
Regarding the future of nuclear energy policy, 58% supported a gradual phase-out leading to a complete elimination of nuclear power in the future, while 30% favored a phased reduction while maintaining a certain number of newly built nuclear plants.
Meanwhile, Asahi Shimbun reported that in the event of a predicted massive earthquake along the Nankai Trough in southern Japan, the Japanese government would issue a “Major Earthquake Warning,” requiring at least 670,000 people to evacuate in advance. This number far exceeds the approximately 470,000 evacuees recorded during the Great East Japan Earthquake.
However, about half of the local governments in the areas expected to be affected reported that they lacked sufficient evacuation shelters.
The newspaper pointed out, “During the Great East Japan Earthquake, there was about 30 minutes between the earthquake and the arrival of the tsunami. However, in the case of a Nankai Trough earthquake, a tsunami could arrive within minutes, highlighting the need for preemptive evacuation.”
The Nankai Trough is an underwater trench extending from offshore Shizuoka Prefecture westward to the southern part of Shikoku and the eastern coast of Kyushu. The Japanese government estimates that there is an “approximately 80%” probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring in this region within the next 30 years.
Implications and Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Decommissioning Issue
The recent survey results revealing that 60% of Japanese people believe the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant cannot be decommissioned by 2051 highlight the massive challenges and skepticism surrounding the cleanup process. This sentiment is driven by the sheer scale of the disaster, the complexity of removing molten nuclear fuel (debris), and the uncertainty surrounding disposal methods. The Fukushima accident, which occurred in 2011, remains one of the worst nuclear disasters in history, and over a decade later, progress toward a full decommissioning remains slow.
Uncertainty and Technical Challenges
The decommissioning process requires the removal of 880 tons of highly radioactive nuclear fuel debris, yet as of late 2023, only 0.7g had been successfully retrieved in a trial. With an estimated cost of 8 trillion yen (approximately $53 billion), doubts over the feasibility of this plan are growing. More importantly, there is still no established method for the final disposal of this nuclear waste, further reinforcing public skepticism.
Release of Contaminated Water and Its Global Impact
One of the most controversial aspects of the Fukushima cleanup is the ongoing release of radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean, which began in August 2023. While the Japanese government refers to it as “treated water,” many experts and environmental groups argue that radioactive isotopes, including tritium, carbon-14, and other potentially hazardous elements, are still present in the discharged water.
This poses a significant threat not only to Japan but also to neighboring countries and the global environment—especially the United States. The Pacific Ocean’s currents will inevitably carry radioactive particles toward the U.S. West Coast, raising concerns about contaminated seafood, marine ecosystems, and long-term health effects for American consumers.
Food Safety Risks: The U.S. imports a significant amount of seafood from the Pacific, and contamination concerns could impact both public health and the fishing industry.
Environmental Impact: Marine life, including fish, shellfish, and larger predators, could bioaccumulate radioactive substances, disrupting ecosystems and posing risks to human consumption.
Trade and Diplomatic Tensions: The U.S. has not taken strong action against Japan’s wastewater release, but if contamination levels rise, it could lead to stricter import regulations, trade conflicts, and diplomatic friction between the two countries.
Public Distrust and Nuclear Policy Concerns
The survey also indicates that 83% of Japanese citizens fear another major nuclear accident, and 86% do not believe they could safely evacuate in the event of a radiation leak. This underscores deep public distrust in the government’s ability to manage nuclear safety, further fueling the push for a gradual phase-out of nuclear energy—a policy supported by 58% of respondents.
For the U.S., Japan’s handling of nuclear energy is not just a domestic issue but a global one. If another disaster occurs, radiation exposure and environmental damage could extend far beyond Japan’s borders, affecting global air currents, food supply chains, and trans-Pacific relations.
Conclusion: A Growing Crisis with Global Consequences
The Fukushima decommissioning effort is far from under control, and Japan’s decision to release radioactive wastewater into the ocean presents a direct environmental and health risk to the U.S. and the world. As skepticism grows within Japan itself, international pressure is needed to ensure transparency, accountability, and responsible nuclear waste management. The United States, as a Pacific power, must take a stronger stance on Japan’s nuclear policies to protect its citizens, economy, and environment before the damage becomes irreversible.